港中大经济学系在五大学术顶刊上连续发表七篇论文

　　近三年来，香港中文大学经济学系凭借其卓越的研究实力，在经济学五大学术顶刊上连续发表七篇论文（包括接受和即将刊登）, 成绩斐然。其中四篇文章深度探讨了中国经济的核心议题，这一系列研究成果不仅丰富了国际学术界对中国经济的理解，更彰显了港中大经济学系在中国经济研究领域的杰出地位。

　　We are pleased to announce that professors at the Department of Economics published (or forthcoming) 7 articles in the Top 5 economics journals in the past three years. Four of these publications focus on the Chinese Economy, exemplifying the Department's international leading edge in this research area.

• Bai, Ying, 2023, “Web of Power: How Elite Networks Shaped War and Politics in China.” (with Ruixue Jia and Jiaojiao Yang), Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 138(2): 1067-1108.

Abstract

Scholars have argued that powerful individuals can exert influence on the path of a nation’s development. Yet the process through which people can have an effect on macro-level political economy outcomes remains unclear. This study uses the deadliest civil war in modern history, the Taiping Rebellion (1850–1864), to elucidate how one person—Zeng Guofan—used his personal elite networks to organize an army to suppress the rebellion, and how these networks would affect the nation’s power distribution. Two findings stand out: (i) counties that already had more prewar elites in Zeng’s networks experienced an increase in soldier deaths after he took power; and (ii) postwar political power shifted significantly toward the home counties of these elites, creating a less balanced national-level power distribution. Our findings highlight how micro-level elite networks can influence national politics and societal power distribution, shedding new light on the relationship between elites, war, and the state.

• Li, Z. Merrick, 2022, "A ReMeDI for Microstructure Noise." (with Oliver Linton) Econometrica, 90, 367-389.

Abstract

We introduce the Realized moMents of Disjoint Increments (ReMeDI) paradigm to measure microstructure noise (the deviation of the observed asset prices from the fundamental values caused by market imperfections). We propose consistent estimators of arbitrary moments of the microstructure noise process based on high-frequency data, where the noise process could be serially dependent, endogenous, and nonstationary. We characterize the limit distributions of the proposed estimators and construct confidence intervals under infill asymptotics. Our simulation and empirical studies show that the ReMeDI approach is very effective to measure the scale and the serial dependence of microstructure noise. Moreover, the estimators are quite robust to model specifications, sample sizes, and data frequencies.

• Lu, Dan, 2023, "Misallocation Under Trade Liberalization." (with Yan Bai and Keyu Jin), Conditionally Accepted by American Economic Review.

Abstract

This paper formalises a classic idea that in second-best environments trade can induce welfare losses: gains accrued can be outweighed by incremental income losses stemming from distortions. In a Melitz model with distortionary taxes, we derive sufficient statistics for welfare gains from trade, and show that its departure from the efficient case (ACR) can be captured by the gap between an input and output share and domestic extensive margin elasticities. The loss reflects the impact of an endogenous selection of more subsidized firms into exporting. We show sufficient conditions under which conventional formulas overestimate trade gains as well as conditions under which welfare losses can occur. Using Chinese manufacturing data, we demonstrate by taking into account firm-level distortions, welfare losses largely offset conventional gains to trade.

• Song, (Michael) Zheng, 2022, "From Imitation to Innovation: Where Is All that Chinese R&D Going?" (with Michael Koenig, Kjetil Storesletten and Fabrizio Zilibotti), Econometrica, 2022, 90(4): 1615-1654.

Abstract

We construct an endogenous growth model with random interactions where firms are subject to distortions. The TFP distribution evolves endogenously as firms seek to upgrade their technology over time either by innovating or by imitating other firms. We use the model to quantify the effects of misallocation on TFP growth in emerging economies. We structurally estimate the stationary state of the dynamic model targeting moments of the empirical distribution of R&D and TFP growth in China during the period 2007–12. The estimated model fits the Chinese data well. We compare the estimates with those obtained using data for Taiwan and perform counterfactuals to study the effect of alternative policies. R&D misallocation has a large effect on TFP growth.

• Song, (Michael) Zheng, 2021, "Liquidity Rules and Credit Booms." (with Kinda Hachem), Journal of Political Economy, 129(10): 2721-2765.

Abstract

This paper shows that liquidity regulation can trigger unintended credit booms in the presence of interbank market power. We consider a price-setter and a continuum of price-takers who trade reserves after the realization of idiosyncratic liquidity shocks. The price-takers are endogenously less liquid and circumvent regulation by engaging in shadow banking, which leads to are-allocation of funding away from the more liquid price-setter. This reallocation channel underlies the credit boom. Endogenous responses in bank liquidity ratios also affect the magnitude of the boom. We discuss extensions of the model and illustrate its quantitative performance with an application to China.

• Zhang, Ning, 2023, "Violence Against Women at Work." (with Abi Adams-Prassl, Kristiina Huttunen, and Emily Nix), Accepted by Quarterly Journal of Economics.

Abstract

In this paper, we link every police report in Finland to administrative data to identify violence between colleagues, and the economic consequences for victims, perpetrators, and firms. This new approach to observe when one colleague attacks another overcomes previous data constraints limiting evidence on this phenomenon to self-reported surveys that do not identify perpetrators. We document large, persistent labor market impacts of between-colleague violence on victims and perpetrators. Male perpetrators experience substantially weaker consequences after attacking female colleagues. Perpetrators’ relative economic power in male-female violence partly explains this asymmetry. Turning to broader implications for firm recruitment and retention, we find that male-female violence causes a decline in the proportion of women at the firm, both because fewer new women are hired and current female employees leave. Management plays a key role in mediating the impacts on the wider workforce. Only male-managed firms lose women. Female-managed firms exhibit a key difference relative to male-managed firms: male perpetrators are less likely to remain employed after attacking their female colleagues.

• Zhang, Yifan, 2022,“Migrants and Firms: Evidence from China.” (with Clement Imbert, Marlon Seror and Yanos Zylberberg), American Economic Review, 112(6), 1885-1914.

Abstract

How does rural-urban migration shape urban production in developing countries? We use longitudinal data on Chinese manufacturing firms between 2000 and 2006, and exploit exogenous variation in rural-urban migration induced by agricultural income shocks for identification. We find that, when immigration increases, manufacturing production becomes more labor intensive and productivity declines. We investigate the reorganization of production using patent applications and product information. We show that rural-urban migration induces both labor-oriented technological change and the adoption of labor intensive product varieties.

来源：香港中文大学经济学系